Data Suggest COVID Injections May Have Contributed to Germany’s 2023 Surge in Excess Mortality

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From [HERE] A new analysis in Royal Society Open Science found that Germany’s excess mortality surged in 2023 even as COVID-19 infections and deaths declined. The authors report that vaccination rates were the only factor that consistently tracked with the increase, though they stressed that the study doesn’t establish causation.

Professor Christof Kuhbandner, at the University of Regensburg in Germany, and Professor Matthias Reitzner, at Osnabrück University in Germany, published “Regional patterns of excess mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic: a state-level analysis” in Royal Society Open Science in September.

Using actuarial life-table methods and population-adjusted expected-death modeling, the authors examined excess mortality across Germany’s 16 federal states from April 2020 to March 2023 to determine which factors — COVID-19 infections, deaths, vaccination rates, demographics or policy — best explain mortality patterns.

Their most controversial finding: in the third pandemic year, excess mortality rose sharply while COVID-19 deaths declined, creating a statistical decoupling that correlated positively with vaccination rates, even after adjusting for prior-year mortality.

While no causation is established, the correlations are nonetheless troubling.

Study design: State-level excess mortality across three ‘pandemic years’

This observational modeling study analyzed mortality data for three periods:

  • P1: April 2020-March 2021

  • P2: April 2021-March 2022

  • P3: April 2022-March 2023

Researchers computed expected deaths using 2017-2019 life tables, applied federal-state mortality correction factors and correlated excess mortality with: COVID-19 deaths, PCR-confirmed cases, vaccination rates (double and triple), age structure, poverty, GDP, trust in institutions and policy stringency.

The authors also used change-score models and ANCOVA to control for time-invariant confounders and prior-year excess mortality.

Findings: Early COVID death correlation, later decoupling and a vaccine paradox

  1. First two years: Excess mortality correlated strongly with COVID-19 deaths (r = 0.96 and r = 0.89). Yet COVID-19 deaths greatly exceeded excess deaths (e.g., 78,185 COVID-19 deaths vs. 22,405 excess deaths in P1). The study suggests misclassification or pandemic-measure effects as possible explanations.

  2. Third year: A “new driver” emerged. COVID-19 deaths dropped, infections fell, but excess mortality jumped from ~26,973 to ~78,493. Correlations with COVID-19 outcomes dissolved (r = 0.32, ns).

  3. Vaccination correlation:

    1. In P3, higher vaccination rates correlated with higher excess mortality (r = 0.65, p = 0.006).

    2. Change-score analysis for P2→P3 yielded r = 0.93, p < 0.001, even after adjusting for prior mortality.

    3. Higher vaccination states also saw smaller declines in COVID-19 deaths and case fatality rates. [MORE]