Ebola to slash growth, knock billions off fragile West African economies
/The outbreak of Ebola that is ravaging parts of West Africa could cost affected nations billions of dollars and slash economic growth rates by double digits if the virus’ surge continues across Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the World Bank estimated Wednesday in a new report.
In addition to the human toll — over 2,400 deaths have been reported in the past five months — economists have warned that the outbreak is draining public finances. It’s also encouraging aversive behavior, such as avoidance of travel and trade for fear of contagion, which could incur lasting economic damage in fragile postconflict economies.
“The primary cost of this tragic outbreak is in human lives and suffering, which has already been terribly difficult to bear,” World Bank president Jim Yong Kim said in a statement that accompanied the report. “But our findings make it clear that the sooner we get an adequate containment response and decrease the level of fear and uncertainty, the faster we can blunt Ebola’s economic impact.”
According to the analysis, the worst-case scenario could see economic growth in these three countries slashed by 2.3 to 11.7 percentage points in 2015, potentially plunging countries into a deep contraction. Should the international community mount a more concerted campaign to help contain the virus, however, those estimates would shrink closer to 1 to 4.2 percentage points.
The report comes a day after the U.N. announced that it needed to raise $1 billion to effectively contain the virus, treat its victims and prevent much-feared spillover into other countries. On Tuesday, President Barack Obama announced he would send 3,000 troops to the region to help stem the spread of the contagious disease and build health facilities to treat victims.
