Forget the polls: The Electoral College is what matters - Obama holds a slim 201-181 lead in presumed Electoral College votes

From [HERE] But what ultimately decides who resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. is the Electoral College, which has 538 members -- one for each senator and representative and three additional electors for the District of Columbia.

Election Day is Nov. 6, with early voting beginning Oct. 22 in Texas. Electoral College members don't cast their ballots until Dec. 17.

As of this weekend, Obama holds a slim 201-181 lead in presumed Electoral College votes, with 156 votes in a dozen states considered up for grabs, according to RealClearPolitics.com, a nonpartisan polling-data and political-news organization based in Chicago. Less than a week ago, Obama had a 251-181 electoral advantage in the RealClearPolitics.com totals. The numbers are based on the latest polls in each state.

"It's a close race and the candidates now go to the battleground states," said Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, an associate political science professor at the University of North Texas in Denton.

Now the candidates are trying to determine "which states they need to win, what's the best strategy and how do they best get to 270 votes," he said.

Electoral College

Only four times in history has a candidate won the popular vote but not the Electoral College vote.

Democrat Al Gore was the most recent, in 2000.

Gore won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College after the Supreme Court stopped a recount of some Florida votes.

That essentially gave the Sunshine State and its 25 votes to George W. Bush. He won the Electoral College, 271-266 (one voter abstained).

The other times when the president won the Electoral College but not the popular vote were in 1824, 1876 and 1888.

Through the years, critics have argued that the Electoral College is an antiquated system that disenfranchises voters across the country.

This year, Gore called for letting the popular vote determine the presidency.

"The logic is it knits the country together, prevents regional conflicts, and it goes back through our history to [address] some legitimate concerns," Gore said.

While this year's race is expected to be tight, some say, it's unlikely to produce a president who didn't win the popular vote.

"There is an outside chance that one candidate could win the popular vote ... and lose the electoral vote, but [it's] very dubious this time around," Saxe said.

On Dec. 17, 538 Electoral College voters -- including 38 in Texas -- will head to capitol buildings nationwide to formally cast their vote. Whoever gets at least 270 will win the White House.

The Founding Fathers created the Electoral College -- and put it in the Constitution -- as they tried to find a middle ground between letting Congress and qualified voters nationwide elect the president.

Battleground fights

RealClearPolitics.com indicates that states including Massachusetts, California and New York are expected to go to Obama. States such as Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana are among those likely to go to Romney. Texas, with its modern history as a GOP stronghold, appears to be in Romney's column.

That means neither candidate is likely to head here unless he needs to refill his campaign war chest.

"They are going to the battleground states," Eshbaugh-Soha said. "They will still come to Texas because there are donors here. But they are going to buckle down on the battleground states, targeting the remaining days and finding states where campaign appearances may excite people."

As of late last week, 12 states were in the tossup column.

Those states, and their number of Electoral College votes: Colorado, 9; Florida, 29; Iowa, 6; Michigan, 16; Missouri, 10; Nevada, 6; New Hampshire, 4; North Carolina, 15; Ohio, 18; Pennsylvania, 20; Virginia, 13; and Wisconsin, 10.

That's where the candidates will spend most of their time, Jillson said.

"They know ... the only way to be sure you win the presidency is to get those Electoral College votes," he said.