US Presidential Elections: Forecasting the Vote, Simulating the “Fraud Factor”
/The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model is updated on a daily basis. The election is assumed to be held on the latest poll date. Link to this post for the daily update summary. This worksheet contains the weekly polling trend analysis.
The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. The simulation uses the latest state polls. Recorded 2008 vote shares are used for states which have not yet been polled.
10/20/2012
Obama: 299 expected electoral votes; 95% win probability (477 of 500 election trials).
He leads the state poll weighted average by 48.3-45.8%.
He leads in 13 of 18 Battleground states by 49.9-47.7% with 134 of 205 EV.
The RCP National Poll average is tied 47.1-47.1%.
The True Vote Model indicates that Obama would have 54.5% and 358 expected EV in a fraud-free election. Will he be able to overcome the systemic fraud factor? [MORE]
