Population drop will redraw Detroit's political map: Conyers may Face Incumbent Opponent

From [HERE] Lansing — Mirroring the precipitous decline of population in Detroit, two congressional districts that cover part of the city likely will see major adjustments.

Both have fallen far below the average number of people required for a district and in the remapping process will have to be either eliminated or expanded. Michigan is going to lose one congressional seat, anyway, because the state lost population since the 2000 census. States in the south and west will gain seats.

Two other Metro Detroit districts will see changes, as well, since they've grown in population. That puts them over the ideal ratio of voters to representative. Rep. Candice Miller's 10th District has 719,712 residents, and fellow Republican Rep. Mike Rogers' 8th District has 707,572 — the most populous districts in the state — and they might have to be redrawn to bring their numbers down.

Democratic Rep. Hansen Clarke's 13th District has 519,570 residents while John Conyers' 14th District has 550,465, the two least populous in the state. Both cover parts of the state's largest city, which saw its population dive to just under 714,000, according to the census figures.

"If you look at the 13th, its population is almost 200,000 below what it's supposed to be," said state Rep. Pete Lund, R-Shelby Township, chair of the House Redistricting and Elections Committee. "It's going to force that district to look a lot different than it used to be."

"We're going to have to look at this data and see if it (still) means two minority-majority districts," he said. "We may have to go out into the suburbs if that's where minorities live in order to create another minority-majority district."

Lund noted that District 10, represented by Miller, R-Harrison Township, experienced the largest gain of any district in the state.

"Her district has to shrink," he said. "But we don't know exactly how it will shrink because we don't know how the change in the districts around it will affect it."

Federal standards allow for a deviation in size among congressional districts of plus or minus 5 percent. States have to come up with districts that are racially representative, but can't make racial demographics the predominant reason for shaping a district. Other considerations include Voting Rights Act rules that prevent race-based gerrymandering among other prohibitions.

The greatest challenge, lawmakers say, will be meeting the detailed set of requirements set down in state and federal law — when a change in one district can affect the shape of every district adjoining it.

Within that framework, the party in power may shift boundaries to split off blocks of voters, or establish new districts to weaken support for incumbent opponents. But partisan gamesmanship can land the whole plan in court — not a desired outcome, according to Lund.

The redistricting plan must be passed by the House and Senate, and signed by Gov. Rick Snyder, to become law. It has to be completed by Nov. 1.

The Republican majorities in the state House and Senate will be in charge of drawing new maps for congressional and state legislative districts — just as they were following the 2000 census — with Democrats hoping the process doesn't leave them vulnerable until the 2020 census.

When it comes to the intricacies of redrawing political maps, there's plenty of room to maneuver, according to Michael MacDonald, associate professor of government and politics at George Mason University and an expert on redistricting.

The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that gerrymandering, or deliberately manipulating districts to affect political power, is illegal. But every change in the shape of a district has political impact, intentional or not, and the court has never established standards for determining exactly when the legal line is crossed, MacDonald said.

"The rules themselves may not be neutral," he said. "I'll bet you if you ask the Democrats if those are fair rules, they're going to say they're not.

"I doubt if the Republicans will do something that would jeopardize their control of the state Legislature through redistricting."

Besides losing a congressional seat, some Michiganian voters also will find themselves with a new representative or senator in the Legislature in the next election as boundaries are adjusted to account for population shifts throughout the state.

The congressional redistricting could force two incumbents to face each other in a primary next year, either Clarke and Conyers, or Rep. Sander Levin, D-Royal Oak, and Rep. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, or Conyers and Rep. John Dingell, D-Dearborn.

EPIC-MRA pollster and political analyst Bernie Porn said short of any established Democrat bowing out early, "a big, expensive primary," is almost a given.

Most states give their legislatures control over the redistricting process, to one degree or another. But critics often oppose allowing self-interested legislators draw the lines of the districts where they run for office. But 23 states have commissions that either run the entire redistricting process, work with the Legislature and governor or act in an advisory role.

Senate Democrats announced Monday they will introduce legislation this week to create an independent commission that would lead the state's redistricting process and ensure that the public has a voice in it.

"District maps should not be drawn up behind closed doors and finalized before voters ever see them," Sen. Vincent Gregory, D - Southfield, said in a press release. "This plan makes the redistricting process more transparent for our citizens and guarantees them an opportunity to be involved and voice their concerns."