Bush Leads By Three Among Likely Florida Voters In USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll
/- Originally published in The Frontrunner September 24, 2004
USA Today (9/24, Nichols) reports President Bush "narrowly leads Sen. John Kerry in electoral vote-rich Florida, a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds. Those results give Bush a lead in eight of 11 battleground states surveyed this month." Bush's Florida lead - "49%-46% among likely voters contacted Sept. 18-22 - is within the poll's margin of error of +/-4 percentage points, as are his margins in five of the other seven battleground states where Bush is leading." Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said "the latest Florida numbers track with trends he sees in the wake of the parties' national conventions. Rothenberg's take: Kerry is slightly behind Bush, both nationally and in most key states, and Bush's recent surge has scrambled the political map and limited Kerry's options for putting together the 270 electoral votes needed to become president." Rothenberg said, "We're now looking at states that Kerry should win that Bush could steal. Instead of talking about West Virginia ... we're now focused more on Iowa and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania."
Bush Leads By Three In Iowa Survey.
A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of 800 likely Iowa voters (+/-3.5%) taken 9/21-9/22 shows George Bush leading John Kerry 48%-45% with 1% backing Ralph Nader.
Kerry Leads By Two In Michigan Poll.
A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of 800 likely Michigan voters (+/- 3.5%) taken 9/21-9/22 shows John Kerry leading George Bush 46%- 44% with 1% backing Ralph Nader.
Kerry Leads By Three In Pennsylvania Poll.
A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of 800 likely Pennsylvania voters (+/-3.5%) taken 9/21-9/22 shows John Kerry leading George Bush 48%- 45% with 1% backing Ralph Nader.
Bush Leads By Four In Ohio Poll.
A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of 800 likely Ohio voters (+/-3.5%) taken 9/21-9/22 shows George Bush leading John Kerry 48%-44% with 2% backing Ralph Nader.
Bush Leads By 14 In Wisconsin Badger Poll.
The University of Wisconsin Badger Poll of 468 likely voters (+/-4%) conducted 9/16-9/21 for the Madison Capital Times and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel shows George Bush leading John Kerry 54%-40% in a two-way race and 52%-38% with Nader at 4% in a three-way race.
Bush Up By One In Maine Survey.
A SurveyUSA automated poll of 636 likely Maine voters (+/-4%) taken 9/20-9/22 for WCSH-TV Portland and WLBZ-TV Bangor shows George Bush leading John Kerry 47%-46%.
Bush Up By Four In Iowa Poll.
A SurveyUSA automated poll of 784 likely Iowa voters (+/-3.6%) taken 9/20-9/22 for WHO-TV Des Moines shows George Bush leading John Kerry 50%-46%.
Kerry Up By Ten In Michigan Poll.
A SurveyUSA automated poll of 615 likely Michigan voters (+/-4%) taken 9/20-9/22 for WZZM-TV Grand Rapids and WDIV-TV Detroit shows John Kerry leading George Bush 52%-42%.
Bush Up By 14 In Tennessee Survey.
A SurveyUSA automated poll of 601 likely Tennessee voters (+/-4.1%) taken 9/20-9/22 for WBIR-TV Knoxville shows George Bush leading John Kerry 55%-41%.
Race Closer Than Expected In New Jersey.
USA Today (9/24, Stone) reports New Jersey, "whose 15 electoral votes were presumed to be safely in Kerry's column, has suddenly emerged as closer than either side expected. A Quinnipiac University poll this week showed President Bush tied with Kerry among likely voters; other polls also have shown the race tightening." Pollsters cite "several reasons for Bush's surge," such as the "war on terrorism," the "Republican convention" which was widely covered on local TV stations, and "local politics," including "the recent scandal over Gov. James McGreevey's resignation following an affair with a man and related allegations of corruption in the statehouse." USA adds the "latest polls are already changing campaign travel plans. Laura Bush campaigned last week in Hamilton, the Trenton suburb where anthrax was found soon after the Sept. 11 attacks." Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards, "who has had a long-scheduled fundraiser set for next Tuesday in Middlesex County, now plans his campaign's first public event in New Jersey then."
Pollster Says Kerry Needs 60% Of Remaining "Persuadables" To Win.
Al Hunt writes in the Wall Street Journal (9/24), "New Mexico is without a doubt the Land of Enchantment for George Bush and John Kerry. The president has been to the state four times this year, and Sen. Kerry has visited four times in the past two months. They will be back in the next six weeks. They aren't coming to marvel at the scenic mountains in the north, or the old world charm of Santa Fe. They are courting New Mexico's five electoral votes, as this small state is a genuine battleground. ... Both sides anticipate another close contest this time. In an online survey of likely voters, pollster John Zogby this week shows John Kerry 11 points ahead in New Mexico, but a recent Albuquerque Journal poll put the president slightly ahead. One key: Can George Bush eat into the Democratic majority with the Hispanic vote, which could comprise up to 40% of the New Mexican electorate? Bill Richardson, the popular governor of New Mexico, is optimistic about Sen. Kerry's chances. ... Allen Weh, the state's Republican Party chairman, however, is optimistic about the president's prospects." Hunt adds, "In a tight presidential election, the profile of the relatively small group of swing voters, or persuadables, is encouraging for John Kerry. But he has to win a healthy chunk of them to prevail. In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey, President Bush has a three-point edge among registered voters, and a four-point advantage among likely voters. But 14% of the electorate isn't firmly committed to either major candidate: They are undecided, or leaning to a third-party candidate, or soft Bush and soft Kerry supporters who say they could change their mind. (See the latest results.) Jay Campbell, an associate of Peter Hart, a Democrat, who with Bill McInturff, a Republican, conducts the survey, calculates that Sen. Kerry has to win about 60% of these persuadable voters to beat Mr. Bush. An analysis of the attitudes of these persuadable voters suggests the Democrat should win a majority, but will have to be more effective than he has been to capture three out of five."
Bush Team Intensifying Campaign Despite Recent Signs Of Hardening Lead.
The White House Bulletin/US News (9/23) reported, "Noting that the polls are shifting in President Bush's favor and that Kerry is pulling advertising dollars out of key states like Missouri and Tennessee, one top Bush aide said today, 'We're trying to stop being giddy, but it's hard.' Despite the mood in the White House and Bush's Arlington headquarters, campaign aides said they are adding more campaign events daily. 'We are not turning down the heat,' said one strategist. ... The aides believe that the election could still turn on a dime, and remain worried about becoming confident and following former President Bush's spiral down in the polls and to eventual rejection by the voters."
Kerry Campaign Says Rove Analysis Wrong.
The Washington Times (9/24, Hurt) reports the Kerry campaign "said the analysis of the presidential race that Bush strategist Karl Rove gave The Washington Times this week was only the rosy 'post-convention bright side' and failed to take into account election history in crucial states such as Ohio." Kerry spokesman Mike McCurry said, "The electoral map is going to be shades of blue and gray. You can take a snapshot at any one point the way Karl did and think you're doing well or you're not doing well. But they will change." McCurry "also said Mr. Rove and the Bush campaign had failed to capitalize in key states on the bounce the Republicans enjoyed after their convention Aug. 30 through Sept. 2." Former Sen. John Glenn, "Ohio Democrat and fervid Kerry supporter, told campaign aides yesterday not to be discouraged by polls showing Mr. Bush ahead." McCurry said, "John Glenn was reminding all of us this morning about Ohio's history of opening up big leads and then narrowing towards the end."
Devine Says Bush Is In "Deep Trouble" In Several Red States.
Kerry campaign adviser Tad Devine was asked on CNN's Inside Politics (9/23) if senior presidential adviser Karl Rove is correct in his assertion that the Bush campaign is driving Kerry out of states that had been considered battlegrounds. Devine said, "No, he's not. The surprise of this election is all the states that we're in, places like Colorado, where we began this week an ambitious media buy. I don't think anyone expected Colorado to be in play six or eight months ago. It's very much in play today. States all across this country, Ohio, Florida, these are big major battlegrounds. The president right now is either tied or behind in these places. So it's the red states that we're competing in. And we hope to be able to expand the playing field even further. So I would say to anyone on the other side who thinks that we're not going to expand this playing field that the president is in deep trouble in a number of red states, particularly big states that he won last time. And if he loses any of them, he's going to lose this election."
